It seems inevitable that the NHL will be on the move in the foreseeable future. So, which city would be the best bet for expansion or relocation?

In recent weeks and months there has been plenty of rumours and speculation about whether or not the NHL has plans for more expansion and if not expansion, then at the very least the topic of relocation has been bantered about most notably with the tenuous ownership situation of the Nashville Predators. You know with a level of certainty that when someone asks you on Friday if you have any big plans for the weekend, they really just want you to reciprocate the question so they can tell you about their elaborate plans for the weekend. We can pretty much assume with that same certainty that the NHL will be on the move in the foreseeable future, whether it be in the form of expansion or relocation. Just my opinion but expansion would just add to the NHL’s problems. Yes the league would reap immediate gains by splitting an exorbitant expansion fee among the 30 current clubs but once that one-time money grab ceases the league remains in the same perilous situation of having too many teams competing in non-traditional hockey markets and failing miserably at the attendance turnstiles. My wish and I’m sure I’m not alone is to see the league contract by a few teams and thus improve the overall talent level; I mean you can’t say with a straight face that the Phoenix Coyotes are fielding a NHL caliber roster this season.

So since it seems inevitable the league will be occupying one or several new hockey markets in the next few years let’s make the best out of the situation and find the most suitable city to rightfully call itself an NHL market.

I like to think that when Gary Bettman and the NHL hierarchy sit down to discuss new markets that the war room they hole themselves up in is like the one that the TMZ staffers use when they make their celebrity story pitches. But instead of hearing pitches like “I’ve got a great video of Britney Spears accosting someone with an umbrella” or “I’ve got video of Miss Teen South Carolina that will make Jessica Simpson look like a scholar” you’ll hear things like “I’ve got a mid-western hockey market, that has a brand-spankin’ new arena, that has previously failed as an NHL city, has shown no evidence for supporting hockey at any level of competition and is one of the smaller media markets out there that is interested in getting a team.”

So in the TMZ spirit I’ve provided you the list of potential cites that have either already expressed interest in getting a team or look like viable hockey markets and ask you, “Who’d you rather?”

Evaluation Criteria:

In terms of evaluating the potential new NHL markets I have selected a series of criteria to judge and rank the perspective cities on:

• TV Market Size: Based on Nielsen data, this measures the attractiveness of a city’s TV media market based on size. Certainly a useful measure for the NHL as it tries to improve its TV deals.
• Population: Simple logic tells us that the bigger the base to draw from the better the chances of selling more tickets.
• Arena Situation: Does the city have an arena that is modern and can accommodate a proper NHL crowd (18,000+)?
• Hockey Experience: What type of experience does the city have of supporting a hockey team, whether it’s at the major, minor or junior level.
• Competing Sports: What are the other sporting dollars that a NHL club would have to be competing against?
• Market Capacity Rating: This is used to determine a city’s ability to support another sports franchise. Unfortunately the market capacity measure information is only available for the prospective U.S. markets but nonetheless it’s still a very important variable to consider the attractiveness of a relocation or expansion spot. Devised by Bizjournals.com the measure looks at all personal income earned by residents in a given year and compares it against the estimated team revenues and average ticket prices to determine how much income from a community is needed to support a league. Based on this determination it was estimated that 35.7 billion dollars of annual personal income was needed to properly support an NHL club. As a comparative it is estimated that $89.2B income is needed for MLB, $38.4B for the NBA and $33B for the NFL. So if a community produces $75B in personal income they could likely support two major sports franchises in their city provided one of them isn’t baseball with its 162 game schedule.

The market capacity ratings are presented in the form of a 100-point scale. A rating of 100 means a market’s income is healthy enough to support a NHL team. A lesser figure indicates that there may be insufficient income and a score of 0 indicates a heavily overextended sports market with little to no chance of supporting a new franchise let alone its own current franchises.

How the cities were selected:

The ten cities that are profiled consist of candidates that have either:

• Been identified by the NHL or by owner’s interested in relocating their teams;
• Have previously been home to a NHL franchise;
• Have a positive market capacity rating for a new NHL franchise. This helps explain why already overextended U.S. markets like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Salt Lake City weren’t considered.

I ignored European cities for the process because any discussion about expansion to Europe would involve the establishment of a European division and thus at least 5-6 teams and that’s a much bigger discussion for another day.

Let’s start with the most likely Canadian suitors: Winnipeg, Quebec City and Hamilton.

Winnipeg, Manitoba

TV: 8th largest CDN market

Population (by Metropolitan Area): 8th largest in Canada– 0.69M

Arena:  MTS Centre – Opened in 2004 in downtown Winnipeg. Currently plays host to the Manitoba Moose of the AHL. The major strike against the arena is that it only seats about 15,000 for a hockey game and only has 50 luxury seats compared to 200 in some other NHL arenas.

Hockey Experience: Winnipeg was home to the Jets from 1972 -1979 (WHA) and from 1979 – 1996 in the NHL before the ill-fated decision to move the franchise to Phoenix due to financial issues and an aging arena. Winnipeg filled the void of the Jets by getting a new IHL, later AHL franchise in the form of the Manitoba Moose. During the 2006-2007 season the Moose held the 4^th best AHL attendance mark with 7,769 per game, well above the league average of 5,472

Other Sports: Winnipeg is a hockey town and with the return of the Jets, hockey will be the unequivocal main attraction once again. The city also has the Winnipeg Blue Bombers from the CFL but there’s little to no concern that the football team will directly compete with the hockey crowds as the CFL season only overlaps for 2 months with the NHL schedule.

Summary: Winnipeg would make for one of the smallest markets for the NHL and a franchise in Winnipeg would do little to attract further interest in the U.S. markets. But seeing as how the league’s biggest TV package now comes from Canada and how a significant amount of league revenue already comes from the Canadian clubs, to decide to add another wouldn’t be a bad call. The decision to have a franchise back in Winnipeg would be an instant no-brainer if they just would have built the MTS Centre to hold more than 15,000 fans. Building the arena so small is a more short-sighted decision than a restaurant opting for blow hand dryers versus a towel dispenser.

Quebec City, Quebec

TV: 7th largest CDN market

Population (by Metropolitan Area): 7th largest in Canada - 0.71M

Arena: Colisee Pepsi is the former home of the Quebec Nordiques and current home to the QMJHL’s Remparts. Only has a capacity of 15,399.

Hockey Experience: Like Winnipeg, Quebec City had its own WHA franchise that eventually got rolled into the NHL in 1979 before the franchise moved to greener revenue pastures in the U.S. In the Nordqiues’ case the franchise has gone onto a considerable level of success as the Colorado Avalanche. In 1997 the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL came into existence to offset the loss of the NHL franchise. They set a new attendance record in the 2006-2007 season by attracting the highest number of fans in the history of the league with 365,620 people, an average of 10,443 fans per game, smashing the league avg. 3,600 by a wide margin.

Other Sports: In terms of professional sports, Quebec City doesn’t have any other pro teams so NHL hockey would have no trouble transitioning back into the community.

Summary: Aside from the obvious stereotypical Quebec jokes that can be made about the arena now being called Colisee Pepsi, this arena has no ability to host NHL hockey once again. The only way a discussion can even be held about the Nordiques’ return back to the NHL is if a new arena is built. This is still an unquestioned passionate and thriving hockey city that supports the Remparts and also plays host to the world’ s biggest annual hockey tournament, the Quebec International Peewee Hockey Tournament. A simple walk around the streets of Quebec City and its stores and you’ll still see a large amount of Nordiques merchandise.

Hamilton, Ontario

TV: Because Hamilton is lumped in with Toronto and Niagara Falls it makes it part of the largest TV market in Canada

Population (by Metropolitan Area): 9th largest in Canada– 0.69M

Arena: Copps Coliseum, originally built to lure an NHL team to the Hammer but alas it never happened. The capacity at17,500 is large enough for an NHL audience but the arena is now 22 years old and lacks the necessary luxury suites that other NHL clubs have. Copps would certainly make for a suitable temporary rest stop until a new arena can be built in Hamilton or an area close-by like Kitchener-Waterloo.

Hockey Experience: Established in 1996 Hamilton serves as the home to the AHL Bulldogs. For the 2006-2007 season they ranked 14th in the league in attendance drawing only 4,888 per game, about 600 below the league’s attendance average

Other Sports: Like Winnipeg, Hamilton is home to a CFL franchise which isn’t a big competing interest. Although due to Hamilton’s proximity to other markets we need to include the competing sports of Buffalo (football & hockey) and Toronto (baseball, basketball and chiefly hockey) into the conversation.

Summary: The biggest question about a potential move of the NHL to Southwestern Ontario is whether or not Toronto and Buffalo would be willing to accept another bidder into an already competitive sports market. A Hamilton franchise would need to negotiate a competition fee with both the Leafs and Sabres above and beyond an expansion fee. That’s why in my opinion the only way a franchise in Hamilton makes financial sense for its prospective owners is if the team is able to relocate another NHL club and thus avoid the whole need to pay expansion fees.

Now a look at the U.S. markets:

Houston, Texas

TV: 10th largest in the U.S. (between Washington and Detroit)

Population (by Metropolitan Area): 6th largest in the U.S. – 5.54M

Arena: The Toyota Center was built in 2003, current home to the NBA’s Rockets and the Houston Aeroes of the AHL. Seats 17,800 for hockey games.

Hockey Experience: The Houston Aeros were one of the original WHA teams and ran from 1972-1978. The franchise folded when the NHL rebuffed their entry into the NHL when the WHA merged with the NHL. Hockey came back to Houston in 1994 in the form of another incarnation of the Aeros, this time as part of the IHL before they were rolled into the AHL where they currently serve as the minor league affiliate to the Minnesota Wild. For the 2006-2007 AHL season they drew the league’s 10^th best attendance with 6,422 per game, above the league’s average of 5,472.

Other Sports: Houston has no shortage of competing sports interests with the Texans of the NFL, the Rockets of the NBA and MLB’s Houston Astros. A Houston NHL club would certainly have to wage battle for consumer’s sporting dollars when the novelty effect of a new team wears off.

Market Capacity: 55 – This means that Houston is already a competitive market that would not necessarily be a slam dunk to support another pro team.

Summary: Houston is one of the fastest growing regions in the U.S. with a booming economy, strong job growth and a quickly growing population. A move to Houston would give the NHL a foothold in a big market. Houston also represents the biggest TV market that the league is currently not in.  Houston’s arena fits the bill and would be ready for an immediate NHL tenant. The lone strike against a move to Houston is that it represents another team in a non-traditional hockey market but then again the Dallas Stars have been thriving in the same state for over a decade now.

Seattle, Washington

TV: 14th largest (between Tampa and Minneapolis)

Population (by Metropolitan Area): 15th largest – 3.26M

Arena: Key Arena built in 1962 is the current home of the SuperSonics of the NBA and Seattle Thunderbirds of the Western Hockey League (WHL). The arena underwent a major renovation in 1994 and is in need of another one just to maintain pace with other professional sports venues. Disagreements between the city and the basketball team have led to rumours that the SuperSonics will bolt town to Oklahoma when their lease expires in 2010 if a new arena isn’t built. Key Arena holds 15,177 for hockey games. The Thunderbirds are actually moving to a new suburban Seattle 6,000-seat arena in 2008.

Hockey Experience: Seattle has been home to Thunderbirds of Canadian junior hockey’s WHL since 1977. The Thunderbirds drew 4,019 per game in the 2006-2007 season, slightly below the league average of 4,673.

Other Sports: Seattle currently plays home to three out of the four major sports: The Seahawks of the NFL, the Mariners of MLB, and the SuperSonics of the NBA. As mentioned above the Sonics may be relocating to Oklahoma if the city and the team can’t come to some sort of agreement about a new arena. If the Sonics do stay, an NHL franchise would be in tough competion against a sport that runs almost the same calendar as the NHL and that boasts a legitimate franchise altering talent in the form of Kevin Durant.  Baseball really doesn’t run in parallel to hockey and the NFL is a sporting behemoth that will always be the largest draw regardless of which city it operates in.

Market Capacity: 0 – This market is already overextended. The only realistic shot that hockey could have of working in Seattle is if the Sonics bolt town for Oklahoma City, thus freeing up sports entertainment dollars for the NHL.

Summary: Without an arena, a move to Seattle makes no sense. Key Arena is not optimally constructed for hockey and it only holds just over 15,000. Geographically a competing market for Vancouver would make sense and could potentially fuel a strong rivalry. A situation to watch would be the potential relocation by the Sonics as the move could actually create a window down the road for the NHL to help fill a void for the city; of course a new arena would have to be hitched to this plan. 

Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: 43rd largest (between Hampton Roads, Virginia and Albuquerque, New Mexico)

Population (by Metropolitan Area):  31st largest – 1.77M

Arena: Thomas & Mack Centre holds just over 12,000 for hockey. MGM Grand Arena hosts an annual pre-season game between the LA Kings and Colorado Avalanche and holds about 12,000 for hockey.  Harrah’s Entertainment in conjunction with AEG (the same guys who built the Kansas City arena) plan to build a 20,000 seat arena for 2010 in the hopes of luring the NBA or the NHL to Sin City.

Hockey Experience: The Las Vegas Thunder of the now defunct International Hockey League played in Vegas from 1993-1999. Currently the city is home to the Las Vegas Wranglers of the East Coast Hockey League (yeah I know, a team in Vegas as part of an east coast league?) The Wranglers play in the Orleans Arena and had strong attendance last year averaging 5,075 per game which was about 900 above the league average.

Other Sports: This is a market that is as desperate for professional sports as the Toronto Maple Leafs are for a good defense.  Vegas is very much of a big events town (Boxing, UFC, NASCAR) and one that would be a much more natural fit for a sport like the NFL. If the NHL moved to Las Vegas it would run unopposed from a sporting perspective.

Market Capacity: 100 – With no other pro sports teams to compete against Vegas represents a totally untapped market.

Summary: It’s been widely mentioned that heavyweight movie and TV producer Jerry Bruckheimer is interested in being part of an ownership group to bring a NHL club to Vegas; a big name like Bruckheimer’s would surely have Bettman salivating at the thought of getting some instant mainstream media attention.  Any discussion about a move to Las Vegas needs to include the issue of gambling. The NHL is actually one of the most liberal of all leagues by allowing ads from casinos. Other leagues aren’t as open-minded. The NBA prohibits advertising from casinos that allow sports betting, MLB also has tight restrictions; ads cannot relate to gambling but can mention casinos and no ads are allowed from any institution that has sports books. The NFL bans networks and their affiliates from running ads for casinos, sports betting and even the city of Las Vegas.

A move to Las Vegas would place another team in a non-traditional hockey market with a very small TV market. One has to wonder how well the team would do trying to sell 41 home dates when there are so many other entertainment options that the team would be competing against.

Portland, Oregon

TV: 23rd largest (between Pittsburgh and Baltimore)

Population (by Metropolitan Area):  23rd largest – 2.14M

Arena: Rose Garden Arena opened in 1995. Home to the Portland Trailblazers of the NBA and the Portland Winter Hawks of the WHL. Capacity of 17,544 for hockey games.

Hockey Experience: The Winter Hawks have been part of the WHL since 1976 and have been quite a successful franchise. Out of the top 13 attended WHL games in history Portland has hosted 9 of those games. Last season Portland averaged 5,188 per game, well clear of the league average of 4,673.

Other Sports: Portland is currently home to only one major professional sports team, the Trail Blazers of the NBA. The addition of the NHL would obviously run head-to-head against the NBA and would be a cause for concern.

Market Capacity: 100 – With only a NBA team, this market can easily sustain and support a NHL club. Portland is one of the ten most underutilized cities in the U.S. for pro sports.

Summary: One of the biggest strengths that Portland has going for it is an arena that is ready for an immediate NHL tenant, that’s something a lot of other candidates can’t say. Like Seattle the proximity of Portland, Oregon to Vancouver (500Km) would create a natural and built-in rivalry for a new franchise. Portland is a decent TV market and has a sustainable population base to draw fans from. The market capacity rating shows that this city can easily float another sports franchise.

A move to the Pacific Northwest just seems like a natural fit for the NHL, whether it be Portland or Seattle. This is a region that is untapped by the NHL, has plenty of corporate dollars, has a good history of supporting hockey and best of all this is not a region that’s part of the U.S. Sunbelt.

Kansas City, Missouri

TV: 31st largest (between Nashville and Columbus)

Population (by Metropolitan Area):  28th largest – 1.97M

Arena: Sprint Center is newly open as of October 2007. At a $276M price tag the arena is a state-of-the-art venue with a seating capacity of 18,500.

Hockey Experience: Kansas City really doesn’t have a great history of supporting hockey, with a history of several folded teams across different levels of hockey. Kansas City was previously home to a NHL club, the Scouts, who played from 1974-1976. The team couldn’t draw fans, was losing money hand-over-fist and the team relocated to Colorado where they became the ill-fated Rockies before eventually settling in New Jersey. From 1990-2001 KC was home to the IHL’s Blades before the team folded amidst the AHL-IHL merger. The last hockey team to give it a go was the Kansas City Outlaws of the UHL drawing 2,777 (league avg. 3,235), during the 2004 season - their inaugural and lone season.

Other Sports: Kansas boasts two other major professional sports teams, MLB’s Royals and the Chiefs of the NFL. Both those leagues have schedules that run fairly unopposed to the NHL schedule, so that’s a positive.

Market Capacity: 0 – With a MLB and NFL franchise, KC already stands as one of the top-10 most overextended markets in the U.S.. By the numbers this region doesn’t have the income to float a NHL franchise.

Summary: The building of the Sprint Center by Philip Anschutz’s AEG group (he of David Beckham recruiting fame) followed a Field of Dreams mantra: If you build it they will come. The arena was built without any promise of a pro team from the NHL or the NBA acting as a full-time tenant. It’s easy to see why with the strategy that they’ve been so aggressive in trying to recruit a team, such as when they offered the Pittsburgh Penguins a sweetheart lease deal last year or why they constantly come up as a candidate if the Nashville Predators ever move.

The NHL has shown a recent interest in returning to cities where the league previously failed. Some of those ventures have been successful (Colorado, Minnesota), while others have not (Atlanta). Based on the track record of KC’s lack of support for hockey and the fact that the city is already overextended with two sports team I would tend to think a return by the NHL to this region would be a doomed situation from the get go.

Hartford, Connecticut

TV: 29th largest (between Raleigh and Nashville)

Population (by Metropolitan Area): 44th largest – 1.19M

Arena: Opened in 1980 the Hartford Civic Center has a capacity of 15,635 for hockey.

Hockey Experience: Hartford is home to the NY Rangers AHL affiliate, the Hartford Wolf Pack. The Wolf Pack was formed in 1997 immediately after the Whalers departed for Carolina.  Last season the team had the league’s 25^th best attendance at 4,562 per game, well short of the AHL average of 5,472 per game.

Other Sports: There is no other major pro sports team in Hartford. Obviously a return to Hartford by the NHL would signal the death knell for the AHL franchise but I’m sure most locals would accept the trade-up to get their beloved Whalers back.

Market Capacity: 100 – Like Las Vegas, without a current pro sports team the city has plenty of excess sports entertainment dollars ready to throw the NHL’s way. 

Summary: The reason the Whalers relocated in the first place was because of their inability to get a new arena; sadly that situation has not changed. Hartford could very well have to take a Kansas City approach and build an arena first and then try to lure the NHL back when the facility is finished and awaiting a tenant. When compared to other potential sites Hartford is a smaller market but the fact that it does have previous and recent NHL experience bodes well for a rabid fan base to be re-awoken if the city can lure a team back. (i.e. Minnesota fans welcoming the NHL with open arms). A NHL team in Hartford would also be able to draw from instant historical rivalries the team could resume with the Boston Bruins, New York Rangers and Montreal Canadiens.

Indianapolis, Indiana

TV: 26th largest (between Charlotte and San Diego)

Population (by Metropolitan Area): 33rd largest – 1.66M

Arena: Conseco Fieldhouse opened in 1999 and serves as home to the NBA’s Indiana Pacers. The Indiana Ice of the United States Hockey League also play a few games a year there. The building has a capacity of 18,345 for basketball but strangely only a capacity of 14,400 for hockey.

Hockey Experience: Indianapolis has an interesting hockey history and are most notably known as the answer to the trivia question of where Wayne Gretzky started his professional hockey career. From 1974-1978 Indy was home to the Racers of the WHA. The club subsequently sold Gretzky to the Oilers in ’78 and promptly folded shortly thereafter. The Indianapolis Checkers occupied the hockey landscape from 1979-84 as members of the CHL, before moving to the IHL from 84-87. Hockey was resurrected in 1988 with the addition of the Ice who played in the IHL for a period of 12 years before moving to the CHL from 1999-2004. In their last season they drew 4,760 per game above the league average of 4,501. Currently the city is home to the Indiana Ice of the U.S. Hockey League – the top junior hockey league in the U.S.

Other Sports: Indianapolis has two other major professional sports clubs in the form of the NBA’s Pacers and the NFL’s Indianapolis Colts. The Pacers’ schedule would run directly against the prospective NHL team, so there would be some cause for concern about the competitive sports entertainment dollar getting stretched too thin. The Colts are the unquestioned sports juggernaut when it comes to this market but the NFL only plays an 8-game home schedule.

Market Capacity: 68 – With two sports teams the kitty isn’t quite as full as other markets to support a NHL team.  This area isn’t overextended but the NHL has to be concerned that the Colts and Pacers would likely be ahead of hockey in the pecking order for tickets and merchandise.

Summary: The biggest question to me is if Conseco Fieldhouse can be reconfigured to seat more for hockey. If not there’s no way you can rationalize a NHL team moving into an arena that can only seat 14,000. Like Houston there’s also a bit of a concern whether the city can financially afford to support another sports team.

Conclusion:

There’s actually only one no brainer for NHL expansion/relocation and surprisingly the entry isn’t coming from Canada. Based on all the metrics Portland, Oregon is the most attractive and ready-built candidate for a NHL team. Portland has the arena, has the history of sporting hockey and the market can easily sustain the addition of a NHL franchise.

In Canada, Winnipeg would have been a slam dunk if they just would have built their arena bigger. All you can say about the MTS Centre is that it was an extremely short-sighted decision to build a state-of-the-art arena so small.

Quebec is still a very viable market but they need a new arena and won’t be considered until they remedy that situation.

Hamilton at this point is probably the most likely of Canadian cities to take on a NHL club just because Copps Coliseum, despite how antiquated it is, can draw close to 18,000. A new arena plan, whether it be in Hamilton or somewhere else in Southwestern Ontario like Kitchener-Waterloo, would have to be part of the equation.

Houston, Texas is an interesting candidate because it represents the biggest market the NHL could settle themselves into from the list. Houston has a NHL-ready arena, is a big TV market and does have some history of supporting hockey although the one strike against them is that the market may be too saturated with the three other professional sports that are already occupying the landscape.

As for the other contenders, Las Vegas could be an option when their new arena is built but I tend to think that a move to such a non-traditional market with so many competing entertainment choices would be a big risk.

Hartford and Seattle are viable markets but both are in desperate need of new arenas. Seattle is a very intriguing option especially if the Sonics bolt town thus creating a void that the NHL could fill.  You also have to think that the only realistic way the city of Seattle gets funding for a new arena is if there’s promise of a future tenant and that’s where the NHL would be able to help out.

Indianapolis is a decent choice but there are too many cities that look like better fits for the NHL, so for Indy it’s a process of elimination by the numbers game.

Perhaps out of all the options the one that seems most ill-fated is a move to Kansas City. They do have a new arena but other than that there’s nothing to suggest that hockey will work in this already severely overextended sports market.

So there you have it. If the NHL chooses to relocate or expand the best option for them is in the Pacific Northwest – Portland, Oregon.