Joe Thornton will look to lead the San Jose Sharks to their first ever Stanley Cup. (Source: AP)

Despite all the uncertainty in the post-season there is one constant and it’s the biggest hallmark of success in every playoff year - spectacular goaltending. This year, particularly in the Eastern Conference goaltending will be a big issue. Outside of Martin Brodeur and his 144 games of playoff experience the remaining Eastern Conference starting goalies have 3 games of combined playoff experience.  This doesn’t include the notorious Dominik Hasek and his 87 games of playoff experience.  Has there ever been a player with a seemingly lower threshold for pain than Hasek in the history of sport? Vince Carter in his Raptors-sulking days looks like Brett Favre next to The Dominator and his endless list of medical problems that leaves team doctors scratching their heads.

Playoff experience while helpful isn’t a prerequisite to solid goaltending.  J.S. Giguere was a playoff rookie when he led the Ducks to the finals and won the Conn Smythe trophy. Johan Hedberg had a dozen games of NHL experience before he got on a hot streak and led the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Eastern Conference finals.

No team has experienced a bigger power shift as a result of their goaltending situation then Nashville. In one fell swoop the Predators went from being a team on the rise that no one wanted to face in the playoffs to a team that everyone is posturing to face in the first round. With the loss of Tomas Vokoun for the remainder of the season the Predators have quickly turned their situation into Vito Spadafore’s on the Sopranos. Both were ascending up the power ranks before extenuating circumstances derailed their aspirations. For the Preds, that was losing their rock. For Vito, it was getting caught in a leather number.

The way I look at it, goaltending in the playoffs is like putting in golf. You can have the greatest offensive lineup or big drive but if you can’t rely on a goalie making an enormous save (i.e. eagle of long birdie putt) from time to time or even make those steady 5-foot putts (routine saves) than you’re not going to advance. 

Outside of goaltending a lot of people will look towards special teams as a possible indicator into a team’s chances. Let me save you the trouble, special teams aren’t an indicator of playoff success despite how nice or intelligent they make prognosticators look.  Of the final four teams from the 2003-2004 playoffs only Philly had a top-10 power play unit and oddly enough their power play efficiency dropped by over 7% in the post-season. Calgary has the league’s 21^st best PP in the regular season and their man advantage performance slipped even further during their Stanley Cup drive.  The Flames penalty killing was any better; their efficiency regressed mightily in the playoffs.

Predictions:

Western Conference Champion: San Jose Sharks

By far, the most intriguing team in the playoffs is the San Jose Sharks. Although the Sharks enter the playoffs as the type of team that people originally anticipated, they went about it in unconventional fashion. Pegged as one of the favourites to win it all in the pre-season the Sharks stumbled mightily, losing 16 of their first 24 games. In need of a drastic change the Sharks swung a blockbuster trade with the Bruins for Joe Thornton on November 30^th and immediately watched their fortunes improve; with Thornton the Sharks went on to post a 35-14-7 record. The Sharks have two solid scoring lines in Thornton, Cheechoo, Ekman and Marleau, Michalek, Bernier. The chemistry that Thornton has built with Cheechoo is incredible. How insane is it that Cheechoo finished the year as the NHL leading scorer with 56 goals? Don’t get me wrong I’ve also loved the way he played but I figured his ceiling would be 35 goals.  Before Thornton arrived Cheechoo was struggling, scoring only 7 times in nearly a two month span.

As much as Thornton has helped, Cheechoo is a solid individual player and his accomplishments stand up impressively on their own. He leads the NHL in GWG over the last three years, is ranked 15^th in goals scored over that same span and has scored15 of his 56 goals this year in the last 5 minutes of a game. His penchant for scoring in clutch situations pre-dates Thronton; 9 of his 28 goals in the 2003-2004 season were game winners.

If you’re looking for a player to emulate Cheechoo’s career path I fully expect Steve Bernier to make a similar impact to the one Cheechoo made in the 2003-2004 playoffs. He’s got the same innate ability as Cheechoo to score in the clutch; 5 of his 14 goals were scored in the last 5 minutes of play this year – his rookie year.

Other Favourites: I full expect the Calgary Flames to be the Sharks’ opposition in the Western Final. The Flames have great goaltending and an awesome defense but they struggle to score goals which will ultimately cost them. The Red Wings are another team I really like but I found a stat that’s a little unnerving. During the regular season Zetterberg and Datsyuk average 0.787 and 0.848 PPG respectively; in the postseason those totals drop to 0.313 and 0.324 points per game. You gotta think Detroit won’t get very far without their young guns firing in the playoffs and until they prove it I can’t bank on them.

Eastern Conference Champion: Carolina Hurricanes

With seven 20+ goal scorers and four 30+ goal scorers the Hurricanes possess one of the deepest offensive teams and certainly the most balanced attack in the league. Led by Eric Staal’s 100-plus point season the Canes have been one of the NHL’s biggest surprises. I think everyone expected the Canes to fall back to reality after their hot start but to Carolina’s credit they played solid hockey all year long. In nets Martin Gerber is perfectly capable of stealing a couple of games as evidenced by his performance in the Olympics for Switzerland. While I’m not exactly enamored with their defense I think they’ll be able to succeed on their offensive attack.

Other Favourites: I was back and forth between the Canes and Sens before settling on my choice. Theoretically Ottawa should be a heavy favourite to win it all. They have the best defense and the most explosive offense in the league. And despite the absence of Hasek I don’t think goaltending will be an issue for the Sens. I’m big fan of Emery. I had a chance to interview him before the season started and he was a terrific guy to talk to. He exuded a lot of confidence and it was easy to sense how excited he was about earning a full-time gig in the NHL.  His play in Hasek’s absence has been awesome and I fully expect him to carry into the playoffs. So why am I not picking the Sens to make the finals? There’s something about the team that’s lacking that I can’t quite put my finger on; maybe its consistency. There are nights when Spezza and Heatley look disinterested and when the secondary scoring isn’t there. Still it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Ottawa is in the Stanely Cup finals. And yeah, I know that’s a bit of a cop out but at least I recognize it.

Stanley Cup Champions: San Jose Sharks