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Dungy Theory Revisited By Patryk Fournier May 26th, 2003

	He hasn't won a Super Bowl but he does have a theory named after him.

Don't get me wrong; I think Jacques Martin is a great coach. He has led the Senators to their first taste of success and has continued that trend over the years. He is a great teacher of the game, a true strategist. Martin is an X's and O's type coach who would be an ideal fit for any team full of young players or an expansion team. Martin can devise a great system and have his players play into it. What Martin lacks is the motivation skills, the inspirational skills and the overall emotion and risk-taking persona that many other coaches with a Type A personality hold. The Dungy theory presents a mold for success; build a team under the tutelage of a great teacher and then when that coach has taken them as far as possible, bring in a coach like the Buccaneers did with Jon Gruden, who will show his emotions during a game, motivate the players when they get down, take risks and most importantly instill an ere of confidence and invincibility.

Analyzing the Senators' loss to the Devils in the Eastern Conference finals brings some interesting observations. It took the Senators falling behind 3-1 in the series for Martin to finally make a change in his lineup and place 19 yr-old sensation Jason Spezza into the lineup. Spezza immediately paid dividends by leading the Sens to victory in Game 5 and was a dominant offensive and creative force in Games 6 and 7. In contrast Pat Burns benched defenseman Oleg Tverdovsky after his poor Game 1 performance. Burns rolled the dice with the change and the players responded. Benching a player sends a message to those in the lineup that if you don't play well, you'll sit. Martin and his ultra-conservative nature designated him to the notion that you should field the lineup that got you there. This hesitation in not starting Spezza very well may have cost the Senators an appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals. The greatest inspiration and motivation for the Senators' players came from assistant coach Roger Neilson who has been battling cancer for the past few years. He gave a heartfelt speech to the players after Game 5 about not letting chances in life pass you by. The players responded and pushed the series to a 7th game. It's interesting that the speech came from the assistant coach and not the head coach, someone who's in an exemplary position to lead and motivate his players.

Another comparison that makes the Tony Dungy and Jacques Martin parallel so close is the manner in which the teams lost. The Sens were one goal away from reaching the finals and in the 1999 NFC Conference game the Buccaneers lost 13-6 to the St. Louis Rams, one touchdown away from victory. It's too easy to look at the Senators narrow loss and assume the team will be in the same position next year by following a stand-pat philosophy. The competition will be that much better, especially from the super powers in the West: Detroit, Dallas and Colorado. Plus you can't count out the unexpected. What happens if Marian Hossa or Patrick Lalime gets injured? The other Dungy Theory candidate suffered that exact fate when Rick Adelman and the Sacramento Kings lost Chris Webber to injury in their second round matchup with the Dallas Mavericks, thus ending their chances for a championship victory.

Believe what you want about this theory but Jacques Martin's contract expires after next season and it shouldn't surprise anyone if his contract is not renewed.

In case you missed it the first time around here is the full explanation of the Dungy Theory:

The Ottawa Senators need to fire Jacques Martin.

To make this kind of statement you need to have a well thought answer and proper reasoning. Better yet, I have a theory to back up my statement. Every great philosopher, scientist and researcher seeks to develop and discover his or her own theory; some even dedicate a life's work to creating one. At the young age of 23 I have created my own theory and I call it the Dungy Theory.

The Dungy theory is named after current Indianapolis Colts coach and former Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Tony Dungy.

Dungy Theory Defined: A proverbial championship contender must fire the coach who brought them to the current level of success in order to win a championship.

The following three conditions must exist in order for the Dungy Theory to be applicable:

1. The team has been considered a championship contender for at least two seasons.
2. The coach in question must be the only head coach in franchise history to bring success to an otherwise failure ridden and basement dwelling franchise.
3. A bitter and hated rival has eliminated the proverbial championship contending team from playoff contention on 2 or more occasions.

	Q: Name a country in Europe. A: China ......Good Answer!

To further explain this theory, lets revisit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers situation. Tony Dungy was hired in 1996 as the 6th coach in Bucs history. Before his arrival the organization suffered from extensive failure and was basically the laughing stock/ doormat of the NFL. Over time Dungy built a tremendous defense and eventually brought the Bucs to a point where they became a perennial playoff team and eventual Super Bowl contender. Unfortunately Dungy was unable to carry the Bucs to the Super Bowl. He failed to coach the team past their hated playoff rival, the Philadelphia Eagles and was subsequently fired after the second straight season ending playoff loss to those dreaded Eagles. In the early going fans and management accepted the early playoff losses in a gracious manner because for the most part the organization was happy just to make the playoffs after such failure in the past. Losing out in the early rounds of the playoffs back then was like a basketball player missing a free throw and still getting love from his teammates or someone on Family Feud giving a bad answer and still having his/her family rally around them by incessantly clapping and yelling "Good Answer". Simply put, those early playoff losses were part of the grace period given to the coach in hopes that a Super Bowl was just down the road. That Super Bowl victory under Dungy never came; thus the need for a new coach.

Enter Jon Gruden, an outspoken, passionate and emotional coach that fires up his players with his intensity and desire to win. In comparison Tony Dungy was a soft-spoken coach who rarely displayed much emotion during a game. Gruden's passionate and energetic style of coaching lifted the Bucs to a Super Bowl win that included a playoff victory over the Eagles, thus cementing his place as a coach who knows how to win it all. Gruden's positive vibe re-inspired the Bucs and gave them the confidence needed to win it all. A big part of losing is mental. After a few years of losing that mentality sticks with the players and the coaches message doesn't come across with the same strength it once did.

	How patient can the Sens be?

Now let's look at Jacques Martin's situation. He was hired in 1996 as the 3rd coach in the Ottawa Senators history. Before hiring Martin the Sens displayed little improvement or hope for their fans since their inception as an expansion team in 1992. The Sens set various records for futility and were arguably the worst franchise in professional sports. Player personnel and off ice decisions made about as much sense as Barbasol's new commercial for their new line of shaving cream scents: "Barbasol, now in 7 great new flavours." Flavours? How did the Barbasol marketing team get that approved? This futility all ended with the hiring of Jacques Martin. Martin was hired and proceeded to build and install a defense first system. The continued development of young players coupled with the defensive minded coaching system helped the Senators reach the playoffs for the first time and for subsequent years since Martin's hire. After 6 straight post-season appearances (prior to this season) the expectations have risen and over the past few years the Senators have been considered bona-fide Stanley Cup contenders. Although like the Tampa Bay Bucs under Dungy the Senators have been unable to live up to media and fan expectations for a championship victory. Interestingly enough the Senators and Jacques Martin have there own dreaded playoff rival in the form of the Toronto Maple Leafs. In the past three consecutive years the Leafs have eliminated the Sens from playoff contention, thus ending any chance for Stanley Cup aspirations. The case can't be any clearer; Jacques Martin, coach of the Ottawa Senators is a perfect example of the Dungy Theory at work. Let's examine the checklist:

1. The team has been considered a championship contender for at least two seasons. The Senators have been considered contenders for at least 2 years.

2. The coach in question must be the only head coach in franchise history to bring success to an otherwise failure ridden and basement dwelling franchise. Before Martin's arrival the team was the NHL version of the L.A. Clippers.

3. A bitter and hated rival has eliminated the proverbial championship contending team from playoff contention on 2 or more occasions. The Sens have had their season ended by the Leafs three consecutive times.

Buccaneers Record Before Dungy: 92-209-1 (.306) Buccaneers Record Under Dungy: 54-42 (.563)

Senators Record Before Martin: 41-200-19 (.194) Senators Record Under Martin: 246-204-78 (.540)

The Dungy theory doesn't stop here. Rick Adelman of the Sacramento Kings also falls under this theory. He took over the coaching reins for a very unsuccessful and poor playing Sacramento Kings team that has suffered through years of bad play and a serious lack of playoff qualification. Over the years Adelman has brought the Kings to their current level of being considered a strong NBA championship contender. Like Martin and Dungy, Adelman has his own playoff hurdle in the form of the Los Angeles Lakers. It's a little early to place Adelman amongst the likes of Martin and Dungy because the Kings have only been a true championship contender for one season and that started last season. If the Kings fail to win the championship this year and more importantly if the Lakers beat them then Adelman will officially become the next example of the Dungy Theory.

	Can the Sens find the Gruden of NHL coaches?

It's very difficult for teams like the Bucs, Sens & Kings to fire the coach who helped bring the organization out of the basement and into a position to capture the top spot in their respective sport. It's also very difficult to convince the fans that firing the only coach who has ever brought success to the organization is the right move. Appreciation and a desire of loyalty to the coach certainly exist and helps explain why organizations give these coaches so many chances to win it all. Choosing the successor is a very important and crucial decision that will be met with lots of skepticism. Picking a new coach is like picking a movie that your date really doesn't want to see; there's big pressure involved. "Just remember, this is your pick. I didn't want to see this movie." Make the wrong pick and your date will be angry with you. That's what management is faced with when they look for a new coach. Make the wrong decision and the fans will turn on you. The best candidate for the job is typically the coach who represents a new philosophy and that exhibits a 180-degree change of personality. The players get rejuvenated listening to a new approach and philosophy to the game.

So with all that being said the only thing that stands between the Senators and the Stanley Cup is finding the Jon Gruden of NHL coaches.