Dungy Theory Defined: A proverbial championship contender must fire the coach who brought them to the current level of success in order to win a championship.

The following three conditions must exist in order for the Dungy Theory to be applicable:

1. The team has been considered a championship contender for at least two seasons.
2. The coach in question must be the only head coach in franchise history to bring success to an otherwise failure ridden and basement dwelling franchise.
3. A bitter and hated rival has eliminated the proverbial championship contending team from playoff contention on 2 or more occasions.

Every great philosopher, scientist and researcher seeks to develop and discover his or her own theory; some even dedicate a life's work to creating one. At the young age of 23 I have created my own theory and I call it the Dungy Theory. The theory is named after current Indianapolis Colts coach and former Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Tony Dungy.

	Q: Name a country in Europe. A: China ......Good Answer!

To explain this theory, let's revisit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers situation. Tony Dungy was hired in 1996 as the 6th coach in Bucs history. Before his arrival the organization suffered from extensive failure and was basically the laughing stock/doormat of the NFL. Over time Dungy built a tremendous defense and eventually brought the Bucs to a point where they became a perennial playoff team and eventual Super Bowl contender. Unfortunately Dungy was unable to carry the Bucs to the Super Bowl. He failed to coach the team past their hated playoff rival, the Philadelphia Eagles and was subsequently fired after the second straight season-ending playoff loss to those dreaded Eagles. In the early going fans and management accepted the early playoff losses in a gracious manner because for the most part the organization was happy just to make the playoffs after such failure in the past. Losing out in the early rounds of the playoffs back then was like a basketball player missing a free throw and still getting love from his teammates or someone on Family Fued giving a bad answer and still having his/her family rally around them by incessantly clapping and yelling "Good Answer". Simply put, those early playoff losses were part of the grace period given to the coach in hopes that a Super Bowl was just down the road. That Super Bowl victory under Dungy never came; thus the need for a new coach.

Enter Jon Gruden, an outspoken, passionate and emotional coach that fires up his players with his intensity and desire to win. In comparison Tony Dungy was a soft-spoken coach who rarely displayed much emotion during a game. Gruden's passionate and energetic style of coaching raised the confidence level of the players and lifted the Bucs to a Super Bowl win that included a playoff victory over the Eagles, thus cementing his place as a coach who knows how to win it all. Gruden's positive vibe re-inspired the Bucs and gave them the confidence needed to win it all. A big part of losing is mental. After a few years of losing, that mentality sticks with the players and the coaches' message doesn't come across with the same strength it once did.

	Prior to Martin the Sens had as much direction as a Barbasol ad campaign.

Now let's look at the Senators' situation under Jacques Martin. He was hired in 1996 as the 3rd coach in the Ottawa Senators history. Before hiring Martin the Sens displayed little improvement or hope for their fans since their inception as an expansion team in 1992. The Sens set various records for futility and were arguably the worst franchise in professional sports. Player personnel and off-ice decisions made about as much sense as Barbasol's new commercial for their new line of shaving cream scents: "Barbasol; now in 7 great new flavours." Flavours? Really that's the slogan you want to go with? How did the Barbasol marketing team get that approved? This futility all ended with the hiring of Jacques Martin. Martin was hired and proceeded to build and install a defense first system. The continued development of young players coupled with the defensive minded coaching system helped the Senators reach the playoffs for the first time and for subsequent years during Martin's tenure. After 8 straight post-season appearances the expectations had risen to astronomical levels and the city was braced for a Stanley Cup. Although like the Tampa Bay Bucs under Dungy, the Senators were unable to live up to media and fan expectations for a championship victory. Interestingly enough the Senators have their own dreaded playoff rival in the form of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs have eliminated the Sens from playoff contention in four out of the past five seasons. The case can't be any clearer; Jacques Martin is a perfect example of the Dungy Theory at work. Let's examine the checklist:

1. The team has been considered a championship contender for at least two seasons.
    - The Senators have been considered contenders for at least 3 years

2. The coach in question must be the only head coach in franchise history to bring success to an otherwise failure ridden and basement dwelling franchise.
   - Before Martin's arrival the team was the NHL version of the L.A. Clippers

3. A bitter and hated rival has eliminated the proverbial championship contending team from playoff contention on 2 or more occasions.
  - The Sens have had their season ended by the Leafs four out of the past five seasons

Don't get me wrong; I think Jacques Martin is a great coach. He led the Senators to their first taste of success and continued that trend over the years. He is a great teacher of the game, a true strategist. Martin is an X's and O's type coach who would be an ideal fit for any team full of young players or an expansion team. Martin can devise a great system and have his players play into it. What Martin lacks is the motivation skills, the inspirational skills and the overall emotion and risk-taking persona that many other coaches with a Type A personality hold. The Dungy theory presents a mold for success; build a team under the tutelage of a great teacher and then when that coach has taken them as far as possible, bring in a coach like the Buccaneers did with Jon Gruden, who is a motivator, takes risks and most importantly can instill an ere of confidence and invincibility.

	A new coach can bring some bounce and energy to the players.

It's very difficult for teams like the Bucs and Sens to fire the coach who helped bring the organization out of the basement and into a position to capture the top spot in their respective sport. It's also very difficult to convince the fans that firing the only coach who has ever brought success to the organization is the right move. Appreciation and a desire of loyalty to the coach certainly exist and helps explain why organizations give these coaches so many chances to win it all. Choosing the successor is a very important and crucial decision that will be met with a lot of skepticism. Picking a new coach is like picking a movie that your date really doesn't want to see; there's big pressure involved. "Just remember, this is your pick. I didn't want to see this movie." Make the wrong pick and your date will be angry with you. That's what management is faced with when they look for a new coach. Make the wrong decision and the fans will turn on you. The best candidate for the job is typically the coach who represents a new philosophy and that exhibits a 180-degree change of personality. Former Buc Warren Sapp spoke the collective thoughts of the Bucs players after the change was made and Gruden was brought in: "This team is different, it started with Jon. He brought us the energy right from training camp. It's got a bounce to it, it's special. You can forget about the past. It's all about now." The Senators' players need a new voice that will help them forget about the past and give them that energy and bounce that they so desperately lack.

So with all that being said the only thing that stands between the Senators and the Stanley Cup is finding the Jon Gruden of NHL coaches.